NHS may have to cope with an additional one million 50-plus people with serious illnesses in ten years

According to research providing the first estimate of the overall prevalence of serious illnesses among older people in England and the UK, the number of people over 50 with a serious illness is set to increase. However, improvements in health may mean that the proportion of older people suffering from such conditions will decrease.

With demand for NHS services already under pressure, new analysis by leading think tank International Longevity Centre – UK (ILC-UK) supported by Engage Mutual, the over-50s life cover specialists, predicts the NHS may have to support up to one million more older people with serious illnesses within the next ten years.

Called ‘Serious Illness in the Over 50s’, the report provides the first estimate of the overall prevalence of serious illness among older people in England and the UK. It finds an estimated 2.6m older people or one in eight of those aged 50+ (13.9 per cent) are living with serious illness in England according to the latest data from the English Longitudinal Study on Ageing (ELSA).

ILC-UK predicts this will increase to between 2.9m and 3.4m by 2025. The researchers also forecast that across the UK nearly 3.1m people were living with serious illness according to the data and that figure is set potentially to rise to between 3.4m and 4m by 2025.

The research reveals that while the number of older people with a serious illness will increase, improvements in health may actually result in a fall in the proportion of older people suffering one of the conditions explored. ELSA data suggests that the prevalence of serious illness among those aged 50+ has been slightly decreasing over time, from 15.8 per cent in 2002 to 13.6 per cent in 2012.

David Sinclair, Director of ILC-UK said: “The research shows that even over a short period of time we have successfully reduced serious illness among older people. But we must not be complacent. Our ageing society is going to put increasing pressure on the NHS over the next ten years.

“On the one hand, the research paints a picture of a potentially healthier older population aged under 70. A success story perhaps party attributed to effective preventative treatments such as statins. But it also paints a bleak picture of more people in their 90s suffering from serious illness. This research suggests that health interventions have helped us live healthier for longer. And it strengthens the case for continued investment in the prevention of ill health in old age.”

Other findings from the research, which studied older people suffering from one of five conditions - Alzheimer’s and other dementia, Parkinson’s disease, cancer, heart attack, and stroke - included:

• The 60-64 age group has the highest percentage of people who are first diagnosed with a serious illness

• There is a growing proportion of people aged 80+ suffering a serious illness but a declining prevalence among those in their 60s and 70s

• Evidence was reported of a large increase in the proportion of people aged 80+ having survived a heart attack

• The period 2002 to 2013 saw falls in the proportion of people aged 50+ having heart attacks and strokes. But this decade has also witnessed increases in the proportion of older people with cancer

• Six in ten over 90s have none of the five major serious illnesses studied.

However, the report also highlights that the overall prevalence of older people living with serious illness between 2002 to 2012 increased among those aged 80+, while declining dramatically for those in their 60s and 70s.

Engage Mutual’s sales director Stuart Tragheim said: “As a customer owned mutual business and the only over 50s life cover provider to include a no charge serious illness option to customers, we wanted to work with ILC-UK to examine the extent of the issue, both now and in the years ahead. These findings underline just how important it is to have protection in place.”

The research, however, may well underestimate the extent of serious illness because details of individuals living in care homes are not available in the ELSA dataset and some serious illnesses may not be recorded.