COVID-19 outbreak risk in care homes triples with every extra 20 beds, study finds

The likelihood of a coronavirus outbreak in a care home triples with every additional 20 beds it has, a study of 189 infected care homes by NHS Lothian and Edinburgh University has found.

Of the care homes studied in one Scottish Health board, (which collectively had 400 deaths), researchers discovered that in care homes with less than 20 residents, the likelihood of an outbreak was five per cent. However, in care homes with 60-80 residents this chance rose to at least 83 per cent.

Researchers analysed testing, COVID-19 cases and deaths using care home, testing and mortality data up to 15 June, for the 189 homes which had 5,843 beds.

'Statistically significant' links between outbreak and care home size'

Researchers’ analysis of older people’s care homes only (109 care homes), found ‘statistically significant associations between the presence of an outbreak and number of beds’.

The research paper said of the infected care homes: ‘Older people’s care homes were much larger (median 48 beds vs eight for all other types combined), more likely to be in private ownership (67.9% vs 30.0%) or to have a history of multiple prior outbreaks of other infectious diseases (28.4% vs 0%)’.

The research paper 'Evolution and impact of COVID-19 outbreaks in care homes: population analysis in 189 care homes in one geographic region' can be found here.

Care home deaths fall for 11th consecutive week

Meanwhile, according to figures published by the Office for National Statistics, COVID-19 deaths in care homes have fallen for the 11th consecutive week in England.

In total, 111 care home residents died of Covid-19 in England in the week ending 10 July (irrespective of place of death), down from the 147 deaths reported to the Care Quality Commission the week before.

This reflects a similar pattern of declining deaths in care homes across the UK.