Care home occupancy predicted to rise to pre-pandemic levels by end of 2021

Social care analysts predict that although care home occupancy rates will continue to fall during the winter months, by November 2021 they will have risen to pre-pandemic levels.

Care homes have been on the frontline this year fighting to keep their residents safe from COVID-19. Nearly 20,000 care home residents in the UK have died from the virus and some families have postponed placing their loved ones in residential care over fears they could catch coronavirus or be unable to visit them due to safeguarding measures.

This has contributed to occupancy rates in care homes falling from a pre-pandemic average of 87.3 per cent nationally to just over 79 per cent, according to Carterwood’s director Ben Hartley.

His report, Light at the end of the tunnel, written with associate Luke Sefton, sets out a range of forecasts which includes the prediction that the total excess elderly care home deaths will total 27,982 during the pandemic when compared to the five-year historic average.

Care home staff and residents have begun receiving the COVID-19 vaccine and Carterwood has based the predicted number of deaths on the assumption there will be one additional outbreak wave until the vaccine becomes widely available. Mr Hartley said: “It is heartening that the picture, while still challenging, is nevertheless more optimistic for the short and mid-term future of the sector.

“We are pleased to forecast that excess deaths in elderly care homes will be significantly lower than previously expected, while acknowledging that this brings no comfort to those families that have suffered the tragic loss of loved ones to this virus during the course of the pandemic.”

He added: “For those involved in building, running, and funding elderly care homes, we hope to be proved right in predicting that while occupancy will continue to fall slightly during the winter months, we will see a sustained recovery during 2021.”

Mr Hartley attributes this rise in occupancy rates in 2021 to “pent-up demand and the slow but ultimately decisive impact of the vaccination programme”.

Carterwood believes that the total elderly care home bed capacity will continue to decline to December 2024, with 35,700 existing beds lost and 19,700 beds gained from new development.

Bed quality over the next five years will gradually improve, with ensuite bedrooms becoming the market standard and bedrooms with wetrooms becoming more common.

However the national shortfall in supply levels of market standard beds will increase to between 57,300 and 64,300 beds by December 2024 and the national shortfall in supply levels of wetroom beds will increase to between 221,600 and 228,600 beds by December 2024, according to Carterwood.

Mr Hartley said: “In the longer term, we believe there will be an acceleration towards wetroom accommodation and, in purely capital terms, it’s clear that the investment case for new developments is possibly stronger than ever.”

The report also highlights the “extraordinary efforts of those in the sector”.

“In the short-term, we would like to raise awareness of two organisations: First, Championing Social Care, which is doing fantastic work to raise awareness and recognition of social care generally; and the Care Workers Charity, which supports the care workers who look after the most vulnerable in our society.

“The fortitude shown by those who manage and work in our elderly care homes has been nothing short of magnificent, and they deserve our support both now and in the future,” said Mr Hartley.

He added: “In delivering our analysis about the commercial implications of the pandemic, we are only too aware of its greater human cost. We are in awe of care providers and their frontline staff who have been doing such sterling work in unbelievably difficult circumstances. We also want to offer our condolences to all those who have lost loved ones in care homes, and offer our sympathy to those who have suffered in other ways during this period.”

If you would like to request a copy of the full research report in PDF format, please contact Tom Hartley on tom.hartley@carterwood.co.uk or 07715 495062.